We begin with high time frame analysis on the daily chart to understand the market context and holistic situation of EUR/USD.
As we can see, price is in an obvious uptrend with two touch points, price recently touching the SMA 50, bouncing off that moving average which is acting as a dynamic support level. Furthermore, the SMA 50 and 200 have recently crossed with the 50 moving above the 200, signaling a possible uptrend. From the image we can also see that we have a resistance level that has been touched twice in the past 8 months before beginning a significant downtrend.
Moving down into the 4 hour chart we can see that price is forming a recent downtrend with successive lower highs. Eventually, price broke below that key resistance level we mentioned earlier, on high volume. Expanding further, this break resulted in price crossing the SMA 200, an event that hasn't occured in the last 67 days. The retracement of this break failed to penetrate above the SMA 50 from the downside, maintaining in line with the trendline drawn on the chart, forming a new lower high. Furthermore, the SMA 50 is just now touching the SMA 200, crossing below it, signaling a possible downtrend.
Drilling down further into the 1 hour chart, we're able to identify a short term downward channel that price trades within. This channel is then broken on heavy volume, as indicated by a large red exhaustion candle, signaling selling pressure has evaporated in one big burst. Price then returns into the channel, with new buying interest pushing price out of the channel on the upside. The SMA 200 acts as a dynamic resistance zone and rejects price, pushing it further down. Price finds support at the support/resistance level that we identified on the daily chart. The breaking of this level was not broken on high volume, signaling market disinterest, rather than active selling.
At this point, price is likely to trade within a channel, with the first big rally ending in an exhaustion candle, in which price quickly returned to the channel. Price will eventually continue this consolidation until touching the trendline that was drawn on the daily, while the SMA 200 continues to become lower and get closer to price. At some point a breakout will occur, but I believe consolidation will hold for some time before then. Therefore for the purposes of right now, I would say this pair is bullish, but I would not take trades now. Instead, I would wait until price reaches either end of the channel and then assess from there.
As we can see, price is in an obvious uptrend with two touch points, price recently touching the SMA 50, bouncing off that moving average which is acting as a dynamic support level. Furthermore, the SMA 50 and 200 have recently crossed with the 50 moving above the 200, signaling a possible uptrend. From the image we can also see that we have a resistance level that has been touched twice in the past 8 months before beginning a significant downtrend.
Moving down into the 4 hour chart we can see that price is forming a recent downtrend with successive lower highs. Eventually, price broke below that key resistance level we mentioned earlier, on high volume. Expanding further, this break resulted in price crossing the SMA 200, an event that hasn't occured in the last 67 days. The retracement of this break failed to penetrate above the SMA 50 from the downside, maintaining in line with the trendline drawn on the chart, forming a new lower high. Furthermore, the SMA 50 is just now touching the SMA 200, crossing below it, signaling a possible downtrend.
Drilling down further into the 1 hour chart, we're able to identify a short term downward channel that price trades within. This channel is then broken on heavy volume, as indicated by a large red exhaustion candle, signaling selling pressure has evaporated in one big burst. Price then returns into the channel, with new buying interest pushing price out of the channel on the upside. The SMA 200 acts as a dynamic resistance zone and rejects price, pushing it further down. Price finds support at the support/resistance level that we identified on the daily chart. The breaking of this level was not broken on high volume, signaling market disinterest, rather than active selling.
At this point, price is likely to trade within a channel, with the first big rally ending in an exhaustion candle, in which price quickly returned to the channel. Price will eventually continue this consolidation until touching the trendline that was drawn on the daily, while the SMA 200 continues to become lower and get closer to price. At some point a breakout will occur, but I believe consolidation will hold for some time before then. Therefore for the purposes of right now, I would say this pair is bullish, but I would not take trades now. Instead, I would wait until price reaches either end of the channel and then assess from there.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.