🔹 1. Price Action & Technical Structure (Weekly & Daily Charts)
Price has broken above the ascending channel highlighted on the weekly chart.
The 1.3545 area is currently acting as dynamic resistance — a weekly close above it is crucial to confirm a breakout.
Below, we find a bullish order block (demand zone) around 1.3340 – 1.3280, aligning with the 0.5 Fibonacci level.
RSI is neutral, showing no bearish divergence at the moment.
🔹 2. COT Report (Commitment of Traders)
USD Index:
Non-commercial traders: +823 new longs, +363 new shorts → Neutral to bullish positioning.
Commercials remain net short, indicating short-term USD strength potential.
EUR FX (inverse proxy for USD):
Significant reduction in speculative long positions → Less bullish pressure on the Euro, favoring USD strength.
🔹 3. Sentiment
67% of retail traders are short GBP/USD vs. 33% long.
This is a bullish contrarian signal, suggesting potential continuation toward the 1.36–1.37 zone.
🔹 4. Seasonality
Historically, June tends to be bearish for GBP/USD over the past 5–10 years.
However, the first 10 days of the month often start with bullish momentum before correcting in the second half.
🔹 5. Economic Calendar
Today: Construction PMI (GBP), ECB Press Conference (EUR), Unemployment Claims (USD).
Tomorrow: High potential volatility across all USD pairs.
Watch out — upcoming macro data may strongly impact breakout confirmation.
🔹 6. Operational Outlook
Primary Bias: Neutral/Bullish with potential for a technical pullback.
📍 Key Levels:
Resistance: 1.3545 – 1.3593 (Supply zone + 0.0 fib)
Support: 1.3340 – 1.3280 (OB + 0.5/0.618 fib)
🧠 Scenario 1 – Bullish Continuation:
Retest of 1.3340 → long targeting 1.3590 / 1.3680
Confirmation on daily close above 1.3550
🔻 Scenario 2 – Bearish Retracement:
Rejection below 1.3550 + USD macro strength → drop toward 1.3280
If that breaks → extended move to 1.3170 / 1.3150
Price has broken above the ascending channel highlighted on the weekly chart.
The 1.3545 area is currently acting as dynamic resistance — a weekly close above it is crucial to confirm a breakout.
Below, we find a bullish order block (demand zone) around 1.3340 – 1.3280, aligning with the 0.5 Fibonacci level.
RSI is neutral, showing no bearish divergence at the moment.
🔹 2. COT Report (Commitment of Traders)
USD Index:
Non-commercial traders: +823 new longs, +363 new shorts → Neutral to bullish positioning.
Commercials remain net short, indicating short-term USD strength potential.
EUR FX (inverse proxy for USD):
Significant reduction in speculative long positions → Less bullish pressure on the Euro, favoring USD strength.
🔹 3. Sentiment
67% of retail traders are short GBP/USD vs. 33% long.
This is a bullish contrarian signal, suggesting potential continuation toward the 1.36–1.37 zone.
🔹 4. Seasonality
Historically, June tends to be bearish for GBP/USD over the past 5–10 years.
However, the first 10 days of the month often start with bullish momentum before correcting in the second half.
🔹 5. Economic Calendar
Today: Construction PMI (GBP), ECB Press Conference (EUR), Unemployment Claims (USD).
Tomorrow: High potential volatility across all USD pairs.
Watch out — upcoming macro data may strongly impact breakout confirmation.
🔹 6. Operational Outlook
Primary Bias: Neutral/Bullish with potential for a technical pullback.
📍 Key Levels:
Resistance: 1.3545 – 1.3593 (Supply zone + 0.0 fib)
Support: 1.3340 – 1.3280 (OB + 0.5/0.618 fib)
🧠 Scenario 1 – Bullish Continuation:
Retest of 1.3340 → long targeting 1.3590 / 1.3680
Confirmation on daily close above 1.3550
🔻 Scenario 2 – Bearish Retracement:
Rejection below 1.3550 + USD macro strength → drop toward 1.3280
If that breaks → extended move to 1.3170 / 1.3150
Trade active
Good short reaction after NFP data released. My short trade on GBP/USD 
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.