U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Bearish Setup – Supply Zone Rejection & 🔹 Trend Overview
📊 Overall Trend: Bearish (Downtrend)
📉 Price is forming lower highs and lower lows within a descending channel.
🔻 Recently bounced off a support zone, now heading toward a potential pullback.
🔵 Supply Zone (Resistance Area)
📍 Zone Range: 100.049 – 100.601
🧱 Acts as a resistance block where sellers might step in.
📏 Confluent with EMA 70 at 100.178, strengthening its validity.
🔸 Trade Setup – Short Position
🟠 ENTRY POINT: 100.088
❌ STOP LOSS: 100.587 – 100.595 (Just above supply zone)
🎯 TARGET: 98.000 (With intermediate support levels)
📌 Support Levels
🔹 98.112 – First minor support
🔹 98.106 – Close-range confirmation
🔹 97.885 – Additional support zone
🟦 Main Target: 98.000
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio
🟧 Small risk above supply zone
🟩 Large reward to downside = Favorable R:R
📌 Summary
📈 Expecting a pullback into supply zone.
🧨 Look for bearish confirmation around 100.088.
🎯 Target the downside at 98.000 for profit.
Dxyindex
DXY ready for free fall?DXY at 99.39 strong liquidity grab then rejected back to the support level then following a head and shoulder, price completely has broker out of the support with CPI, it has finally managed break out of consolidation.
As the impulse has volume, we may see further drop to the monthly support 97.93 and may potentially break below as there is FVG which may slide the price further down.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Weekly 2025Summary:
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has corrected down to the key 38.60% Fibonacci retracement zone and is currently showing signs of a potential bullish reversal, bolstered by a clear hidden bullish divergence on the MACD. This may signal a renewed rally toward key upside targets, especially if the 93.3–99.9 support Zone holds.
Chart Context:
Current Price: 98.864
Key Fib Support: 38.60% @ 99.906, 48.60% @ 93.310, 61.80% @ 87.476
Support Zone: 93.3–99.9 USD
Hidden Bullish Divergence: Observed both in 2021 and now again in 2025 on the MACD
Trendline Support: Long-term ascending trendline holding since 2011
Fib Extension Targets (Trend-Based):
TP1: 115.000
TP2: 120.000
TP3: 126.666
Key Technical Observations:
Fibonacci Confluence: DXY is bouncing from a strong Fib cluster between 93.310 and 99.906, historically acting as a reversal zone.
Hidden Bullish Divergence: Suggests potential upside despite price weakness.
Downtrend Retest: Price may revisit 93.3–87.4 before confirming full reversal.
Breakout Pathway: Green dashed arrows outline the likely recovery trajectory toward 114–126 range.
Indicators:
MACD: Showing hidden bullish divergence and potential signal crossover.
Trendline Support: Holding intact from 2021 low.
Fib Levels: Used for retracement and trend-based extension.
Fundamental Context:
Interest Rate Outlook: If U.S. inflation remains controlled and Fed signals future hikes or sustained high rates, DXY strength may persist.
Global Liquidity & Recession Risk: If risk aversion returns, the dollar may rise as a safe haven.
Geopolitical Risks: Conflicts, trade tensions, or BRICS dedollarization efforts may create volatility.
Our Recent research suggests the Fed may maintain higher-for-longer rates due to resilient labor markets and sticky core inflation. This supports bullish USD bias unless macro shifts rapidly.
Why DXY Could Continue Strengthening:
Robust U.S. economic performance & monetary policy divergence
U.S. GDP growth (~2.7% in 2024) outpaces developed peers (~1.7%), supporting stronger USD
The Fed maintains restrictive rates (4.25–4.50%), while the ECB pivots to easing, widening the policy and yield gap .
Inflation resilience and Fed hawkishness
Labor markets remain tight, keeping inflation “sticky” and delaying expected rate cuts; market-implied cuts for 2025 have been pushed into 2026
Fed officials (e.g. Kugler) emphasize ongoing tariff-driven inflation, suggesting rates will stay elevated.
Safe-haven and yield-seeking capital flows
With global risks, capital favors USD-denominated assets for yield and stability
Why the Dollar Might Face Headwinds
Fiscal expansion & trade uncertainty
Ballooning U.S. deficits (~$3.3 trn new debt) and erratic tariff policy undermine confidence in USD
Wall Street’s consensus bearish position.
Major banks largely expect a weaker dollar through 2025–26. However, this crowded bearish sentiment poses a risk of a sharp rebound if data surprises occur
barons
Tariff policy risks
Trump's new tariffs could dampen dollar demand—yet if perceived as fiscal stimulus, they could unexpectedly buoy the USD .
Synthesis for Our Biases
A bullish DXY thesis is well-supported by:
Economic and policy divergence (U.S. growth + Fed vs. peers).
Hawkish Fed commentary and sticky inflation.
Safe-haven capital inflows.
Conversely, risks include:
Deteriorating fiscal/trade dynamics.
Potential Fed pivot once inflation shows clear decline.
A consensus that could trigger a short squeeze or reversal if overstretched.
Philosophical / Narrative View:
The dollar remains the world’s dominant reserve currency. Periodic dips often act as strategic re-accumulation phases for institutional capital—especially during global macro uncertainty. A return toward 120+ reflects this persistent demand for USD liquidity and safety.
Bias & Strategy Implication:
1. Primary Bias: Bullish, contingent on support at 93.3–99.9 holding.
2. Risk Scenario: Breakdown below 93.3 invalidates bullish thesis and targets 87.4–80 zones.
Impact on Crypto & Gold and its Correlation and Scenarios:
Historically, DXY has had an inverse correlation to both gold and crypto markets. When DXY strengthens, liquidity tends to rotate into dollar-denominated assets and away from risk-on trades like crypto and gold. When DXY weakens, it typically acts as a tailwind for both Bitcoin and gold.
Correlation Coefficients:
DXY vs. Gold: ≈ -0.85 (strong inverse correlation)
DXY vs. TOTAL (crypto market cap): ≈ -0.72 (moderate to strong inverse correlation)
Scenario 1: DXY Rallies toward 115–126 then, Expect gold to correct or stagnate, especially if yields rise. Crypto likely to pull back or remain suppressed unless specific bullish catalysts emerge (e.g., ETF flows or tech adoption).
Scenario 2: DXY ranges between 93–105 then Gold may consolidate or form bullish continuation patterns. Then Crypto may see selective strength, particularly altcoins, if BTC.D declines.
Scenario 3: DXY falls below 93 and toward 87 Then Gold likely to rally, possibly challenging all-time highs. Crypto could enter a major bull run, led by Bitcoin and followed by altcoins, fueled by increased liquidity and lower opportunity cost of holding non-USD assets.
Understanding DXY’s direction provides valuable insight for portfolio positioning in macro-sensitive assets.
Notes & Disclaimers:
This analysis reflects a technical interpretation of the DXY index and is not financial advice. Market conditions may change based on unexpected macroeconomic events, Fed policy, or geopolitical developments.
Bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) has bounced off the pivot which lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 98.91
1st Support: 98.36
1st Resistance: 99.60
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DXY DownHaven't posted here in quite awhile, however just have been following trends watching bonds, stocks and bitcoin/gold. Looking at the DXY it appears to have fallen below the 100-101 level support and has since been rejected by that region on a weekly time frame. The support/resistance levels and trends line within have been charted for years and left unchanged. RSI is in the oversold territory but that can remain low for quite a long time, especially if the trend changes. I think the DXY goes to 90 over the next 6 months to 1 year.
Bullish for stocks, bitcoin, gold etc. Who is the fastest horse?
Bearish continuation?US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 100.54
1st Support: 98.32
1st Resistance: 101.78
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DXY Analysis Next Week After Market OpenUS tariff policy is becoming a key variable affecting the Fed's interest rate policy. Current tax policies are facing negative reactions and declining support rates, creating pressure on the US government to promote trade agreements and implement tax cuts to stabilize the economy.
At the FOMC monetary policy meeting in May, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, showing a cautious stance on inflation risks and low unemployment rates. The latest employment figures show that the possibility of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged at the June meeting is very high.
As inventory accumulation can increase inflation, the Fed will wait for a clearer assessment of the impact of tax policies before making a decision. Accordingly, the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates up to 3 times in the second half of the year is low.
The US dollar is expected to continue to decline to adjust
Best regards StarrOne !!!
Bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 98.36
1st Support: 97.98
1st Resistance: 99.23
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DXY BANK VAULT BREAK-IN: Your Dollar Index Profit Blueprint🚨 DXY BANK HEIST: Dollar Index Breakout Robbery Plan (Long Setup) 🚨
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Using the 🔥Thief Trading Style🔥, we’re plotting a DXY (Dollar Index) bank heist—time to go LONG and escape near the ATR danger zone. Overbought? Yes. Risky? Absolutely. But the real robbery happens when weak hands panic. Take profits fast—you’ve earned this loot! 🏆💵
📈 ENTRY: BREAKOUT OR GET LEFT BEHIND!
Wait for DXY to cross 99.300 → Then strike hard!
Buy Stop Orders: Place above Moving Average.
Buy Limit Orders: Sneak in on 15M/30M pullbacks (swing lows/highs).
Pro Tip: Set a BREAKOUT ALARM—don’t miss the heist!
🛑 STOP LOSS: DON’T GET LOCKED UP!
For Buy Stop Orders: Never set SL before breakout—amateurs get caught!
Thief’s Safe Spot: Nearest swing low (2H chart).
Rebels: Place SL wherever… but your funeral! ⚰️
🏴☠️ TARGET: 102.300 (Bank Vault Cracked!)
Scalpers: Long only! Trail your SL like a pro thief.
Swing Traders: Ride this heist for maximum payout.
💵 MARKET CONTEXT: DXY IS BULLISH (But Traps Await!)
Fundamentals: COT Reports, Fed Plays, Geopolitics.
Intermarket Sentiment: Bonds, Gold, Stocks—all connected.
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DXY 4H Breakout? Bulls Eye Momentum Shift!Hey There;
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) appears to have reached a critical turning point from a technical analysis perspective. According to Elliott Wave Theory, following a five-wave downtrend, the AB corrective wave has been completed, and a bullish movement towards the C wave is emerging. This scenario could signal a transition from a bearish market to a bullish one.
Technical Outlook:
- A move towards 104.460 on the DXY may indicate that the market is entering a strong recovery phase.
- The completion of the AB corrective wave suggests that buyers are stepping in, driving upward momentum in price action.
- The C wave typically retraces a portion of the prior decline, creating potential for a higher price level.
Macroeconomic Factors:
- U.S. monetary policy and inflation data remain key determinants of the dollar index’s trajectory.
- Increased global risk appetite may bolster the dollar’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
- U.S. Treasury yields could provide additional support for DXY’s upward movement.
If DXY successfully reaches 104.460, this could confirm a shift into a bullish trend. However, the strength and sustainability of the C wave will depend on supportive volume and momentum indicators. The interplay between technical and fundamental factors could drive a solid recovery in the dollar index.
Should this scenario unfold, it may mark the beginning of a renewed period of dollar strength against global currencies. However, market dynamics and macroeconomic developments must be monitored closely to validate this outlook.
Guys, every single like from you is my biggest source of motivation when it comes to sharing my analysis.
A huge thank you to everyone who supports me with their likes!
DXY Technical Outlook – Strong Support Test and Bullish Reversa Chart Summary
The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) chart illustrates a significant technical structure between strong historical support and resistance zones, with potential for a bullish reversal after a key level retest.
🟢 Key Support Zone: 99.000 – 98.000
📍 Labeled as "STRONG SUPPORT", this zone has held multiple times:
Previous bounce: Early 2023 ✅
Mid-2024 rebound ✅
Current price action once again shows a reaction from this level with a bullish candle forming 🔥
📌 EMA Confluence:
The 200 EMA (blue) sits at 102.401
The 50 EMA (red) at 103.725
Price is currently below both EMAs but near the 200 EMA, suggesting potential for a mean reversion bounce 📈
🔴 Resistance Zones to Watch:
Resistance Zone: 109.000 – 110.000
⛔ Historically rejected in late 2023 and again in early 2025
🧱 Acting as a supply zone — watch for rejection or breakout
ATH Supply Zone: 113.000 – 114.000
🚨 This is a major psychological and technical barrier
🫡 Marked as “NEW ATH” – would need strong momentum and fundamentals for a breakout above this level
📈 Price Action Expectations:
With strong support respected again, a bullish reversal toward 109.000 – 110.000 appears likely (as illustrated by the arrow).
If momentum continues, a retest of ATH zone is on the cards 🔭
However, a failure to hold support could lead to breakdown below 98.000 – watch closely 🔍
🧭 Strategic Insight
Bullish Bias while above support (98.000 zone)
Reversal Confirmation needed above 102.401 (200 EMA) and 103.725 (50 EMA)
Watch for rejection near 110.000 resistance before ATH test
📌 Final Note:
🧊 World Eyes on this Level – As highlighted on the chart, the current support area is under global observation, reinforcing its importance.
🕵️♂️ Stay alert for breakout volume and fundamental catalysts (e.g., Fed decisions, CPI, jobs data).
BEARS STILL IN CHARGE ! DXY- USD INDEX FORECAST Q2 W22 Y25DXY USD INDEX FORECAST Q2 W22 Y25
BEARS CRUSHING THE USD!
Professional Risk Managers 👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
✅ U.S. dollar index is a measure of the value of the dollar against a basket of six foreign currencies.
✅The currencies are the Euro, Swiss franc, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, British pound, and Swedish krona.
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
Pairs to look out for -
EURUSD - BUY
USDCHF - SELL
USDJPY - SELL
USDCAD - SELL
GBPUSD - BUY
- Perhaps it's time to accept that a recovery in the DXY is not occurring anytime soon...
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
"DXY Dollar Index" Market Bullish Heist Plan (Day/Swing Trade)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
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Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the Crossing previous high (100.400) then make your move - Bullish profits await!"
however I advise to Place Buy stop orders above the Moving average (or) Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level for Pullback entries.
📌I strongly advise you to set an "alert (Alarm)" on your chart so you can see when the breakout entry occurs.
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📍 Thief SL placed at the nearest/swing low level Using the 2H timeframe (99.000) Day/swing trade basis.
📍 SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
🏴☠️Target 🎯: 102.300
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💰💵💸"DXY Dollar Index" Bank Money Heist Plan is currently experiencing a bullishness,., driven by several key factors. .☝☝☝
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Bearish drop?US Dollar Index (DXY) is reacting off the pivot and could potentially drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 100.21
1st Support: 98.92
1st Resistance: 101.09
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Bullish Reversal Setup – 1H Chart Analy ENTRY POINT: 100.005
→ This is the area where the trade is suggested to enter long (buy).
🟥 STOP LOSS: Around 99.307
→ Placed below strong support to manage risk.
🟦 SUPPORT ZONE: 99.776 - 99.307
→ Strong historical demand zone, price has bounced from here before.
🟪 BREAKOUT ZONE: Near 100.5
→ If price breaks the trendline here, it may trigger bullish momentum.
🎯 TARGET POINT: 103.096
→ This is the take profit zone (blue box) with a potential gain of +3.29%.
📊 Trade Setup Summary:
✅ Buy Setup: Price approaching support zone, forming a potential reversal.
⚠️ Watch for breakout: Above the trendline to confirm bullish move.
✨ Great Risk-to-Reward: Small risk (tight stop), big reward.
Buy gold, it is expected to hit 3280-3290Fundamentals:
1. Focus on the speeches of Fed officials;
2. Pay attention to Trump's calls with Putin, Zelensky and others;
Technical aspects:
Gold continued its rebound momentum today, but failed to break through the short-term resistance area of 3250-3260 many times. However, after multiple tests, it will become easier to break through this area.
According to the current structure, gold rebounded from around 3120, and then built a secondary low point structure around 3154. Today, during the Asian session, it built a structural retracement area around 3206 again. As the low point is continuously raised, an obvious bullish structure is formed in the short term. For short-term trading, we can start to try to go long on gold based on the structural form; if gold successfully breaks through the 3250-3260 area, gold will continue to the 3280-3290 area, or even the area around 3320.
Trading strategy:
Consider going long on gold after gold retreats to the 3225-3215 area, TP: 3250-3260
U.S. Dollar Index Set for Bearish Continuation The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has completed a five-wave impulse decline (labeled (1) through (5)) from the top of the descending channel. This downward move suggests a completed impulsive bearish leg. Following that, we’ve seen a complex corrective structure – a WXY double zigzag correction – now complete.
Price action shows a rejection from the upper trendline resistance near wave (2), confirming the bearish structure remains intact. The bounce into the corrective high (wave (2)) failed to break above key resistance, and we are now potentially entering a new impulsive move down labeled as wave (3) of the next larger degree impulse.
Primary Impulse Decline: Wave (1) to (5): Classic 5-wave move down ending late April.
Corrective Phase: Complex WXY correction (with subwaves A-B-C in both W and Y).
Current Wave in Play: Wave (3) of a larger impulsive sequence is initiating.
T1: 99.172
T2: 98.013
SL: 101.259
If price closes above 101.265 the current bearish impulse scenario would be invalidated.
Euraud daily timeframe
"Hello friends, focusing on EUR/AUD on the daily time frame, the price is currently in a bullish trend and appears to have completed its pullback to a critical level on the daily chart. In the 4-hour timeframe, there are indications of upward momentum.
After observing the price behavior this week, I believe that higher prices are more likely. However, it is important to note that if the price closes below the 1.7100 level on the 4-hour chart, this analysis may prove incorrect."
If you have any more details to add or need further assistance, please let me know!