Trade Recap CW23Quick and easy breakdown of my EUR/USD position from last week where I miss-managed the entry.
Forex market
EURUSDEURUSD,the structure is showing a buy trend and traders will have to follower the price action on day to day bases .
NZD/JPY BEARS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
NZD-JPY uptrend evident from the last 1W green candle makes short trades more risky, but the current set-up targeting 86.881 area still presents a good opportunity for us to sell the pair because the resistance line is nearby and the BB upper band is close which indicates the overbought state of the NZD/JPY pair.
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CAD/JPY SENDS CLEAR BEARISH SIGNALS|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
CAD/JPY pair is in the uptrend because previous week’s candle is green, while the price is obviously rising on the 1H timeframe. And after the retest of the resistance line above I believe we will see a move down towards the target below at 105.344 because the pair overbought due to its proximity to the upper BB band and a bearish correction is likely.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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POST NEWS (EUR/USD)this week wasnt a good week for post news trading this strategy needs some refinement .. lets see
Buying Opportunity, EURCAD H1The European Central Bank has embarked on a monetary easing cycle, recently cutting interest rates. However, analysts at Berenberg believe that this cycle is coming to an end.
The Bank of Canada kept interest rates at 2.75% on June 4, 2025, but signaled the possibility of a future cut.
Fundamentals support a possible appreciation of the EUR against the CAD, especially if the BoC cuts rates before the ECB.
Selling Opportunity, CHFJPY H1The price has just broken through an important area, but it seems to be a false breakout.
We have 3 FVGs (price imbalance gaps) — these act as a magnet for liquidity, meaning the price tends to return to them to “fill” them.
RSI is above 70 → clear overbought → high risk of correction or reversal.
GBP/USD Is This the Last Dip Before 1.37?🔹 1. Price Action & Technical Structure (Weekly & Daily Charts)
Price has broken above the ascending channel highlighted on the weekly chart.
The 1.3545 area is currently acting as dynamic resistance — a weekly close above it is crucial to confirm a breakout.
Below, we find a bullish order block (demand zone) around 1.3340 – 1.3280, aligning with the 0.5 Fibonacci level.
RSI is neutral, showing no bearish divergence at the moment.
🔹 2. COT Report (Commitment of Traders)
USD Index:
Non-commercial traders: +823 new longs, +363 new shorts → Neutral to bullish positioning.
Commercials remain net short, indicating short-term USD strength potential.
EUR FX (inverse proxy for USD):
Significant reduction in speculative long positions → Less bullish pressure on the Euro, favoring USD strength.
🔹 3. Sentiment
67% of retail traders are short GBP/USD vs. 33% long.
This is a bullish contrarian signal, suggesting potential continuation toward the 1.36–1.37 zone.
🔹 4. Seasonality
Historically, June tends to be bearish for GBP/USD over the past 5–10 years.
However, the first 10 days of the month often start with bullish momentum before correcting in the second half.
🔹 5. Economic Calendar
Today: Construction PMI (GBP), ECB Press Conference (EUR), Unemployment Claims (USD).
Tomorrow: High potential volatility across all USD pairs.
Watch out — upcoming macro data may strongly impact breakout confirmation.
🔹 6. Operational Outlook
Primary Bias: Neutral/Bullish with potential for a technical pullback.
📍 Key Levels:
Resistance: 1.3545 – 1.3593 (Supply zone + 0.0 fib)
Support: 1.3340 – 1.3280 (OB + 0.5/0.618 fib)
🧠 Scenario 1 – Bullish Continuation:
Retest of 1.3340 → long targeting 1.3590 / 1.3680
Confirmation on daily close above 1.3550
🔻 Scenario 2 – Bearish Retracement:
Rejection below 1.3550 + USD macro strength → drop toward 1.3280
If that breaks → extended move to 1.3170 / 1.3150
EUR/USD Reversal Imminent? 5 Powerful ReasonsEUR/USD – Tactical Bearish Outlook Ahead of Key Reversal
EUR/USD is approaching a critical inflection point where multiple technical and fundamental signals are aligning to suggest a potential short-term reversal.
📉 1. Price Action & Technical Structure (1W / 1D)
The pair recently completed a clean bullish structure inside an ascending channel, originating from the 1.0600 demand zone and reaching into the key supply area between 1.1400–1.1550.
Recent price behavior indicates:
A weekly candle with a strong upper wick, signaling institutional rejection.
A visible RSI bearish divergence, showing weakening momentum.
The most recent daily candle broke below the channel, suggesting a potential swing high.
Implication: A short-term reversal is likely, targeting the 1.1180 zone, with an extended move potentially reaching the 1.1050–1.1000 area.
🧠 2. COT Data – Institutional Positioning
USD Index:
Non-Commercials increased longs (+823) and slightly increased shorts (+363) — net bias still bullish USD.
Commercials also added to longs, further confirming institutional accumulation.
→ USD strength building.
EUR Futures:
Non-Commercials reduced longs (-1,716) and added shorts (+6,737).
The net long position in EUR continues to weaken.
→ Increasing risk of EUR retracement.
📅 3. Seasonality – EUR/USD in June
EUR/USD tends to be neutral to bearish in June.
The 5- and 10-year averages show consistent early-month declines, supporting a short bias in the first two weeks.
📊 4. Retail Sentiment
Sentiment is currently evenly split (50/50).
However, more volume is positioned long — a potential contrarian signal.
→ A break in this balance may trigger volatility and directionality.
🧭 5. Macro Context
Eurozone is facing stagnation, with falling inflation and weak growth.
U.S. data remains stronger, supporting the Fed’s “higher for longer” narrative.
→ This divergence favors a stronger USD in the near term.
✅ Trading Outlook
📉 Current Bias: Bearish (corrective)
📌 Short-Term Target: 1.1180
📌 Mid-Term Target: 1.1050–1.1000
❌ Invalidation: Weekly close above 1.1460
🎯 Strategy: Look for intraday rejection confirmations and sell pullbacks, in alignment with HTF structure and institutional flows.
USD/CHF Setup Breaking Down: Don’t Get Caught Long This TrapUSD/CHF is currently trading at a critical technical and macro-structural juncture. Price is hovering within the weekly support area between 0.8050 and 0.8200, a zone that has historically triggered significant bullish reactions. However, the latest weekly candle closed below the psychological 0.8200 level, showing a clear rejection of upper resistance and signaling a lack of buying strength on the U.S. dollar side. This weak closure undermines the bullish structure and opens the door for a potential continuation of the downtrend—especially if price breaks below the 0.8150 mark on the daily or H4 timeframe.
From a seasonal standpoint, June has historically been a bearish month for USD/CHF. Monthly average returns over the past 20, 15, 10, and 5 years confirm steady downside pressure on the dollar against the Swiss franc. Only the 2-year average shows a slight positive bias, but it remains an outlier against the broader seasonal trend. This supports the idea that the recent weakness is not only technical but also cyclical in nature.
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report reinforces this bearish view. On the Swiss franc side, commercial traders (typically the most informed and hedging-oriented participants) are heavily net long, while non-commercial traders (speculators) remain significantly net short. This imbalance is often seen around reversal points and may indicate rising CHF strength. On the U.S. dollar side, positioning is far more balanced—the Dollar Index COT shows a neutral stance, with non-commercials slightly net long but without any dominant momentum. This confirms there’s currently no structural strength behind the dollar to justify a meaningful rebound in USD/CHF.
Lastly, retail sentiment provides a classic contrarian signal: over 90% of retail traders are long on USD/CHF, with only 10% short. This extreme imbalance typically occurs ahead of bearish breakdowns, as institutional players tend to fade overcrowded retail positions.
In conclusion, USD/CHF remains vulnerable to further downside. The weekly price action is weak, seasonal trends are dollar-negative, COT positioning favors CHF strength, and retail sentiment is extremely long-biased. All factors align toward a likely bearish continuation, with technical targets in the 0.8080–0.8050 range. The only alternative scenario would require a strong H4/H1 bullish reaction with a reclaim of 0.8220—but at this stage, that appears unlikely without a major macro catalyst.
TopDown Market structure Analysisoverall bullish we may see some retracement before continuin Bullish higher, I see a new HH formed by breakin the previous HH on the weekly timeframe, the 4h timeframe is showin some correction move hence the trendline broken. waitn on monday moves for entry
GbpusdI think we are about to be in a ranging market because when the market failed to continue to give us HL and HH serially but resolve to equal high then and equal low then we are in range market.this are the first thing we must recognize as a trader because we are meant to trade the new leg to form in the market
Buying opportunity for next week, USDJPY H1If the price stays above 144.30 and forms H1 candles with higher lows, it may continue towards 145.60–146.00 (upper zone).
RSI still supports the bullish direction (momentum has not been broken).
What do you think?
EUR/USD - 4H Analysis - High Probability Trade Setup🔍 Bias: Bullish continuation (Wave 5 setup)
📌 Key Confluences:
Wave (4) is retracing into a key demand zone with strong volume support.
Price is approaching the 71% Fibonacci retracement, a proven institutional entry level.
Ichimoku cloud is holding as dynamic support.
Wave (5) projection targets 1.1550–1.1600 zone (Swing Range).
🎯 Trade Idea:
Buy EUR/USD between 1.1280 – 1.1320
Stop Loss: Below 1.1220 (invalidates wave count)
Take Profit: 1.1550 (1:3+ RR)
⚠️ Risk Note: Confirmation via bullish engulfing candle or volume spike would increase the entry's conviction.
This setup offers strong confluence for a wave 5 rally, making it a high-probability long trade toward the upper swing range.
Follow along for more setups
AUDUSD IS A SELLUpon closely examining the AUDUSD currency pair, it becomes evident that the market dynamics suggest a strong sell signal as trading resumes on Monday. The indicators paint a vivid picture, hinting at a downturn poised to unfold with the opening of the market.
Doji Retest?Lets See How The Doji Area React When The Price Arrived
Im Still Looking Forward For The Price To Go Up Unless It Broke Some Significant Area
Will Keep An Eye At The Doji Zone
GBPCAD short movePrice had broken the neckline and a retested had happened and hence i expect the price to continues to drop to the next support level 1.82662 or more.
EUR/GBP - A symmetrical triangle breakout to the downside
On the 30 minute chart we observe a symmetrical triangle that broke out on the downside on high volume. The price objective for a triangle is the distance of the widest 2 points of the triangle, projected in the direction from the breakout point.
On the chart we can see that the price objective is about 34 pips. A trade is placed near the breakout point, projected around 34 pips downward. I placed this trade before the breakout occurred, with my reasoning being this symmetrical triangle will breakout in continuation of the current trend which is downward. I did not expect the breakout to occur on the upside.
The price objective hasn't be met yet, which gives me reason to stay in the current trade until it has, or until new technical patterns arise.
USD/JPY - early markupstructure, structure, structure
divergence indicates a change in trend, major structure broken , waiting for more data to enter long
GBP/USD - Weekend analysis, a short opportunity
We begin the analysis on the 30 minute chart, we can see that a 5 point trendline has been broken on Friday, the end of the week. Price never recovered above the trendline by day end and is currently trending down as we can see from the new trendline connecting the closing prices of a few recent candles.
When we zoom in on the chart we can also see that the break of the trendline occurred on high volume, a key signal that we should respect this break and expect a potential significant move to follow.
We can also see on the RSI that price is below 50 which means downside momentum is still present. This is a good opportunity to get in on a short trade and place a stop loss above the trendline that was broken, aiming for a take profit that grants a 1:1.5 RR.
USDJPY Short Outlook Interesting to see if USDJPY drops below the lows market at and below the orange line below. Buys are likely to have stops there cause an run on liquidity if prices drop lower. I would expect a fast or aggressive trade lower.
Disclosure: This is only a technical analysis with limited details provided. This view also does not consider any fundamental / economic drivers.
USD/CAD As we keep moving upwards,more double bottoms will be activated and take profit levels will extend.Nice R/R
