Weekly Analysis on GOLDFor next week trading sessions i will be looking for possible bearish continuation since market structure already show the sign that it likely to move bearish to liquidate previous lows.
Futures market
Gold Update – Will Buyers Drive It to 3,485 USD?Great to see all traders again in today’s gold price discussion at the end of the trading session. LyngridTrading here!
Yesterday, gold dropped sharply, with the metal falling by 600 pips during the US session. However, by this morning, it quickly regained its upward momentum, supported by buying pressure around the 3,340 USD support zone.
Specifically, gold regained its momentum after the latest data on the US labor market was just released, showing that the number of initial state unemployment claims rose to 247,000 (seasonally adjusted) by the end of May 2025, according to the announcement from the U.S. Department of Labor. This figure is higher than expected, reflecting a weakening US labor market, which has increased expectations that the Fed will soon cut interest rates to support the economy.
From a technical perspective, as previously analyzed, gold holds a strong short-term technical advantage from the support zone around 3,340 USD. If buying pressure continues, there will be nothing stopping it from rising to 3,485 USD, in line with the idea scheduled at the same time yesterday.
XAUUSD: Bullish Structure Still Intact?Dear friends,
To begin this post, I want you to understand why I want to connect with the global TradingView community. Simply put, I want to share the value I have and listen to more perspectives from all of you. This helps build a stronger, more united community.
And what about you. What do you think of OANDA:XAUUSD hovering around 3,370 USD?
Let’s explore it together!
OANDA:XAUUSD is moving within a very clear ascending channel, with price action consistently respecting both the upper and lower boundaries. This indicates that the bullish structure is still being maintained and the buyers remain in control. The recent upward momentum further reinforces the belief that this trend could continue.
The price is currently approaching a key support zone, marked by the lower boundary of the channel and a previous demand area. If this zone holds, it could offer a strong re-entry opportunity for buyers. The projected bullish target is 3,485 USD, which aligns with the upper boundary of the channel and represents a reasonable upside objective. This is the area I will closely monitor to find a trend-following buy entry, as long as bullish momentum remains intact.
Of course, I do not dismiss the opposite scenario. Failure to hold this dynamic support may suggest that bullish momentum is weakening and could shift the short-term trend to neutral or bearish.
Let me know your thoughts or if you see it differently!
Gold brokeout my structure and target 3300 (Mon 9 Jun 25)Gold brokeout my structure on Friday 06 Jun 25 it drop down target 3300, so it looks like my analysed on Friday. This is my analyse for on Monday next week, it looks want to pull back to 3320, we can buy with below shortly.
Entry Price: $3300 - $3305
Stop-Loss: $3295 - $3290
Take Profit: $3320
Risk Ratio: 1:2
Key zone price is $3300
I saw the smal pull back, , if 1H timeframe close and the price still below $3300, it mean will drop more to $3270 target, but if 1H timeframe close and the price above $3300, it mean will pullback to $3380 first.
let monitor on Monday.
BULLS VS BEARS. WILL GOLD MATCH THE ATH?Glossary:
Ged = Bearish scenario
Green = Bullish scenario
POI = Point of interest
ATH = All time high
LQ = Liquidity zone
Gold since the beginning has been moving in a range and break fashion you'll see this across the board, always. A 4hr range is in the process of being formed ideally what wed like to see is for the high to be matched first. That simply would give more confidence for the bears to get in and short the market however now we sit with the though of where will it go first?
preferred bias
Buys to sell, ideally and the most logical outcome is the highs do get matched forming a strong liquidity zone that can be targeted at a future date, as price begins to fall new points of interest can then be formed (since there isn't a lot to target above right now), this will allow the market to have areas it can market when we see the bullish side of this range play out when ever that may be.
Structure
Current structure allows you to get in trades, previous structure allows you to get out of trades use it to your advantage, think. where does the money want to move next where will the banks get the best bang for their buck and most importantly where can we cause traders to LOSE, a trade you win is a trade someone else lost. so long you stick with where the big guys want to go you'll be on the right side
Bullish bias (green)
Key points get broken, imbalance fill, ATH matched (this is where short orders get stacked, future sweep target.
Bearish bias (red)
Area 1, this is the first key low im looking to break if we see a candle close below continue to area 2, there are traders who WILL get stopped out at zone 1
Area 2, this is our next key point in structure there will still be traders with open positions here also, again if we see a candle close below this zone continue to monitor for Area 3
Area 3, this may be a final target, however there's still POI's sat below if price shows strong signs of bearish momentum target Areas 4 and below can be open for discussion
Conclusion
personally i would like to see POI's built on the buy side as of right now before we move down simply because the market NEEDS somewhere to move from and to without that it would be erratic.
If you found this helpful be sure to boost this idea, give a like and a follow, consistent charts will be posted on a weekly basis and let me know what you think down in the comment section too :)
What Happens Next? Going short is logical?It seems, we have finished a 5 wave impulse and an ABC zigzag type correction. In wave theory, A-B-C correction which is a Zig-zag type correction takes back the %61.8 lenght of the previous impulse. Please check where the price closed today. EXACTLY 0,618 (%61.8) fibo retracement level of the previous impulse. Therefore, it is not a good idea to go for short if there is not a price close below 3305 in 4hrs chart on Monday.
Crude. Daily Internal to External Range Liquidity. 06.06.25Covering the crude expansion from daily internal towards the first external range liquidity
Gold Wave Analysis – 6 June 2025- Gold reversed from resistance area
- Likely to fall to support level 3250,00
Gold recently reversed down from the resistance area between the key resistance level 3400.00 (which has been reversing the price from April) and the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from this resistance area stopped the earlier intermediate impulse wave (5) from the end of May.
Given the overbought daily Stochastic, Gold can be expected to fall to the next support level 3250,00 (which stopped the previous intermediate ABC correction (4)).
Buyers set the toneBuyers set the tone in the Asia session for the S&P 500 daily chart. It implied confidence going into the labor reports on Friday. This confidence carried over to a close above 6000. The next objective to the upside is 6035.
Gold NFP delivery. Thursday High Of The Week Market ProfileCovering Gold orderflow on thursday and NFP friday with proper reasoning.
S&P – Bearish outlook, correction coming next week?A lot of chatter recently suggests traders don't trust this rally, I can see why. From both a technical and macro perspective, things are beginning to look shaky.
The S&P 500 is hovering around the psychological 6000 level, moving in and out with little conviction. The index has already broken its first upward trendline, and while it’s attempting to hold a second, momentum appears to be fading.
We’re currently seeing the formation of a rising wedge pattern. More importantly, RSI is diverging from price action, suggesting weakening momentum.
While inflation has come down from its peak, monetary policy remains tight. Rates have been high for a while now, and the effects may be surfacing.
Hiring appears to be slowing. Initial jobless claims have been ticking up for months. Challenger job cuts just spiked above 200K, a level we haven't seen since COVID or 2008.
Interestingly, the recent JOLTS report shows that job openings increased, but quits declined, perhaps suggesting workers are less confident about job-hopping?
Despite this, unemployment held steady at 4.2% today. Historically, unemployment tends to lag Challenger job cuts by a few months, so we could be in for a jump in July or August, similar to the pattern we saw last year, which caused a huge correction.
From a technical standpoint, I’ve entered a small short position here. Momentum is fading, and the wedge breakdown looks interesting. With that said, with macro uncertainty and the possibility of QE-style stimulus returning if economic data worsens, I’m cautious. We’ve seen markets rally on bad news before, especially in crisis environments, like covid times.
The CPI report next week is interesting. If inflation surprises to the upside, the bearish case strengthens. If it cools more than expected, markets might push higher before any real correction.
Interesting times going into summer.
GOLD Impact of June 6 Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Data on Fed Rate Decisions
Key Data Points
Non-Farm Employment Change: 139K (vs. 126K forecast, revised April: 147K from 177K).
Unemployment Rate: Steady at 4.2% (matches forecasts).
Average Hourly Earnings: 3.9% YoY (vs. 3.7% expected).
Labor Force Participation Rate: Declined to 62.4% (from 62.6%).
Fed Policy Implications
Labor Market Cooling but Resilient:
Job growth slowed (139K vs. 147K prior), with cumulative downward revisions of 95K for March and April. This signals moderation but avoids a sharp deterioration.
Stable unemployment rate (4.2%) and wage growth (3.9% YoY) suggest the labor market remains tight enough to sustain consumer spending but is losing momentum.
Inflation Concerns Persist:
Sticky Wage Growth: Elevated wage inflation (3.9% YoY) complicates the Fed’s inflation fight, particularly in services sectors.
Productivity-Sensitive Costs: Rising labor costs without productivity gains could pressure corporate margins and consumer prices.
Fed’s Balancing Act:
Near-Term Hold Likely: The Fed is expected to keep rates at 4.25–4.50% in July, prioritizing inflation control over labor market softness.
Rate Cut Odds Shift: Markets now price a ~55% chance of a September cut (up from ~40% pre-NFP), contingent on further cooling in inflation (June 11 CPI data critical).
Market Impact
DXY (Dollar Index): Minimal immediate reaction, but sustained labor market cooling could weaken the dollar if rate cuts gain traction.
Equities: Mixed signals (slower jobs vs. stable wages) may limit gains, though tech and growth stocks could rally on delayed Fed tightening.
Bonds: 10-year yields (4.40%) may edge lower if growth fears outweigh inflation risks.
Conclusion
The Fed will likely delay rate cuts until September unless inflation softens decisively. While job growth is slowing, persistent wage pressures and a stable unemployment rate justify a cautious stance. Traders should monitor June CPI (June 11) and Q2 GDP data for clearer signals.
Summary:
No July cut expected; September cut remains contingent on inflation easing.
DXY range-bound near 98.50–99.50 until CPI release.
stay cautious
#gold
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
It's been a decent week on the markets with our path and red boxes playing well from the low to the high for the pull back trade into the region we wanted and then the long completing all but one Red box target which was missed by 20pips.
With NFP tomorrow we would say caution on the markets as we can expect some pre-event ranging and MA play until the release tomorrow. For that reason, we have given the two levels of interest that we feel price will play until tomorrow's release. For now, we're not getting involved in gold until after the NFP move.
As always, trade safe.
KOG’s Bias of the day:
Bullish above 3335 with targets above 3366✅. 3373✅ and above that 3390✅
Bearish on break of 3335 with target below 3320 and below that 3210
RED BOXES:
Break above 3365 for 3372✅, 3375✅, 3388✅ and 3406 in extension of the move
Break below 3350 for 3335, 3330, 3326 and 3307 in extension of the move
The Uncertainty of Gold Gold exhibited considerable uncertainty, as sellers pushed the price back to nearly its starting point this week. Is it profit taking? What do institutions know that we don't, as they increased their long positions this week? 81% of institutions are long. So, where the whales are is where I want to be.
Note: This is not advice. This is for educational purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
XAUUSD AFTER NFPAccumulation, markup distribution markdown. same scenario twice within weeks. potentially approching key level around 2900 / 3000 where we could see this repeaty once again.
Study it, master it, then you will win.
Silver all time Cup and Handle Breakout... China has been colluding with US banks to help hold the silver price down... now that they have more than anyone else in the world accumulated over the last 30 years.. they are covering their positions to Implode the "WEST" and King Dollar for BRICS Unit... Dictators can play chesss while 4 year alternating party terms have no choice but to play checkers.Rising Gold , Central bank Buys, and Bong yields tell the truth of a quickly diminishing USD. .. SMH.. Protect yourself with MARKETSCOM:BITCOIN , Physical bullion and Silver Mining Stocks $AG...
Silver Rising on Weak Dollar, Soft NFP, and Gold StrengthSilver continues to push higher, driven by a combination of macro and technical tailwinds. The latest US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed weaker-than-expected job growth, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may stay on hold or even tilt dovish. As a result, the Dollar extended its slide, providing a strong tailwind for precious metals.
Gold remains firm near record highs, and Silver is starting to catch up, gaining momentum both as a safe-haven asset and an industrial metal. The weaker Dollar environment boosts Silver’s appeal, while softer labor data raises hopes for looser financial conditions ahead.
Equity markets are also rising, reflecting a positive outlook on economic growth and demand. This supports the industrial side of silver, especially with rising consumption in solar, electronics, and EV-related industries.
Technically, silver is testing resistance near USD 37.50. A clean break above this level could open the path toward USD 39.00 and beyond. While RSI suggests short-term overbought conditions based on the daily chart, dips toward USD 35.00 – 36.00 would likely attract buyers.
The combination of soft US data, weaker Dollar, strong Gold performance, and firm equity markets points to sustained upside potential. Watch for follow-through above USD 37.50 to confirm the next bullish leg.
XAUEUR H9 IdeaPotential for a bearish pullback on the XAUEUR H9 which could lead to a price movement towards the support level at 2800. SELL levels from 2918
GOLD 3Days Chart | ViewGold, Silver, Platinum Outlook – Gold Eyes Breakout as Dollar Weakens
- Gold is gaining momentum and approaching a major breakout level near $3,350, supported by a weakening U.S. dollar, rising Treasury yields, and renewed safe-haven demand. A recent U.S. credit downgrade, driven by fiscal concerns, has added pressure on the dollar and boosted interest in hard assets like gold.
- After reclaiming its 20-day moving average, gold climbed to $3,321, showing improving bullish strength. This area is a key confluence of resistance, including the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and intersecting trendlines. A sustained move above $3,375 would confirm a breakout, likely targeting $3,435 and possibly retesting the all-time high near $3,500.
However, if gold fails to hold above $3,375 and reverses, it could signal a false breakout. In that case, the downside scenario comes into play. Initial support sits around $3,277, and a break below that could see prices drop toward $3,184 (around the 50-day MA). If selling pressure intensifies, the next key level to watch is $3,121, the monthly low and a critical line for maintaining the broader bullish trend.
- Silver is also riding bullish momentum, reclaiming its 50-day moving average at $32.80 and testing resistance at $33.70. A breakout could drive prices toward $34.87, fueled by inflation fears and broad dollar weakness.
- Platinum has surged to a one-year high at $1,075.59, driven by tight supply and a spike in Chinese imports. With no immediate resistance, it is poised to challenge $1,100, supported by strong fundamentals and technicals.
XAUUSD (SELL) Weekly IdeaGold Surges Amid Escalating Trade Tensions and Geopolitical Uncertainty
- Gold prices rose sharply as investors reacted to rising global uncertainties. This is the highest level gold has reached in the past three weeks.
- The rally was mainly driven by two major developments. First, trade tensions between the United States and China worsened. President Trump accused China of violating a recent tariff truce and announced a plan to double tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50%, starting June 4. The European Union is also considering countermeasures, increasing the risk of a larger trade conflict.
- Second, geopolitical tensions increased after a Ukrainian drone strike reportedly destroyed a large portion of Russia’s long-range bomber fleet. This action happened just before scheduled peace talks, which quickly ended without progress. The situation has added to concerns about prolonged conflict and global instability.
Technical View
- From a technical standpoint, gold has broken out of a two-month consolidation pattern. Prices had been forming lower highs—around $3,447 in early May and $3,358 in late May—creating a compression triangle.
- A move above the $3,358 level marks a clear breakout from that pattern. This signals a shift in momentum and opens the door for a possible move toward the next resistance at $3,441.90, which is the all-time record closing price. If that level is cleared, a retest of the $3,509 intraday high becomes more likely.
- Support remains around $3,300, which has acted as a solid base in recent weeks. As long as gold stays above that level, the technical outlook remains positive.
CORRECT WAY OF WATCHING YOUR SCREENI believe if you really wanna achieve success in trading it is very important to see how you are looking your charts, while watching your charts your love curves should be easily visible. Creating that perception is trading. On a serious note Gold movement is amazing.
Gold falls below key support, short-term bearish approachAt present, the hourly level has fallen below the key support level of 3330, which is effectively broken as the short-term long-short watershed, which means that the market is weak and volatile in the short term. However, it does not constitute a short trend for the time being. The short-term trend in the future may still fluctuate downward, but there is no basis for a deep decline. Short-term short orders can be participated in, but the general direction remains bullish.
This week is coming to an end. If there are still operation plans, you can wait for a small rebound and then participate in a wave of short-term short operations. The target is controlled at 10-30 points. Enter and exit quickly, and don't be greedy.
Looking ahead to next week, it is expected that the market will fluctuate around 3,300 and then bottom out and then resume its upward trend. The thinking will continue to be mainly "short-term short and long-term long".
The current gold 1-hour moving average system has begun to turn downward. If a dead cross structure is further formed in the future, the downward space will be opened. After gold fell under pressure from a high level yesterday, it continued to be weak today. Combined with the bearish non-agricultural data, there is a lack of support for risk aversion. There is still room for short-term downward movement, and the overall rebound is still the main focus.
Operation suggestions:
Aggressive investors may consider shorting in the 3333-3335 range;
Conservative investors may wait for a rebound to the 3345-3350 area and enter the short position at an appropriate time.
The target is 10-30 points. It is not recommended to hold more than the target.
