NrG_Trader

NrG_Trader

Well, after much fanfare it is finally here! No, not the SSW event, not the Liberation Day (Trump’s April Tariffs), but the shoulder season! That important time of the year for energy traders to watch the price of NG drop faster than Trump’s current approval ratings! The cyclical trade in energy warrants a movement of funds this time of the year to Crude oil,...

NrG_Trader

(scroll chart for info/data/charts. Info located between 2.200-5.500, 2019-2025. Sorry for the extra work!) The weekend calls paid off. I closed my 4.50 calls Monday AM, when the price failed to break the 4120 level. When the price popped, I entered a set of 4.50 puts which I closed this morning when the price approached the 4000 level. April has immediate...

NrG_Trader Updated 

$5.00 looked so close , but now so far! As predicted the market came to its senses and reverted back to some fundamental pricing this week. Although one tweet from Trump and who knows? I better finish this post and get it posted before he strikes again, or I might be at the drawing board before you know it. For the first time in several months, NG prices were...

NrG_Trader

(Chart is the price of NG1 to USO, inlay is 15 year average WTI price, from Dec 15 – March 15, last 15 years) These past weeks I have been discussing two major issues. One was the upward momentum of pricing going into the shoulder season, due to several effects. The other is a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) Event (I have nothing more to discuss about this...

NrG_Trader

Trump trumps the fundamentals! Wow!!! What a week. I stayed up late Sunday night to see the early model runs print, which printed back to the colder, Weekend model ideas, to close my puts. I woke up seven hours later to a rally in NG back to the 3900 level from 3770! But knowing that the Trump tariffs were to take place yesterday, my belief was that there would...

12:23

NrG_Trader

Nat Gas futures dropped 8.5% this week, primarily due to a decline in heating demand and a continuation of the weather models printing below average degree days (DD) for the upcoming 15-day period. This weekends model runs were showing promise for a colder 8-15 day period, but were wiped out with Sunday’s midday models runs. The US models printed a modest 10...

10:06

NrG_Trader

The video goes over my reasoning for the cold back half of March and front of April. The models do not see it, but I do!!! I show a good graphic of price vs storage (natgasweather.com). And as we shall soon see, it going to be all about storage in about six weeks!!! Today’s report was in line with industry experts and their projections for a larger than average...

NrG_Trader

The week has traded a bit stronger than expected, but the future contract rolls over tomorrow. And today there was a great deal of settlement positioning before rollover. As seen in the jump in volume at the expiration window timeframe. It is still expected that tomorrow there will be a great deal of selling into the strength of the pricing. The range of the...

10:47

NrG_Trader

Sorry the pervious video did not have audio. Rerecorded with audio. Worth the watch!

11:38

NrG_Trader

This video goes over the reasoning and verification for my ideas that I posted last night. Price has moved as expected, hit the low of the morning just a hair above the 3900 level. I'm watching the midday HDD prints as I type and it is looking to continue to verify for the short term (two week) period and the long range (3-6 week period). I am still going to exit...

NrG_Trader

Another double-digit gain (13.5%) for the NG market this week. Strong heating demand, record LNG production and production declines have led to a two year high for NG pricing. But that was last week, and this week brings a new set of completely different fundamentals. Production began recovering form freeze offs close to 6 BCF/d yesterday. The has not been any...

NrG_Trader

The Us models trended 9 HDD warmer while the Euro trended a whopping 18 HDD warmer. Weather models have trended perfectly for the new week and roll over set up. Expecting a sizable gap lower today, with models losing double digit GWDD for the 15 day period. Roll over Tuesday afternoon, HH Spot below $4 again and heading lower today. Looking as planned. Production...

NrG_Trader

Today I exited my call options, earlier than planned. I had originally planned on exiting my calls sometime before the market opened premarket, New York, on Thursday. But the two days of short covering has led to such a massive move that it prompted me to take my profits early. Fundamentally I am looking at the same thing the big boys are looking at. The artic...

NrG_Trader

The countdown begins! Looking for the bounce to upper resistance before report release Thursday AM. Good luck all. Have a great trading week. Keep it Burning.

08:47

NrG_Trader

Weather, Demand, Exports, Storage, Contract Rollover Natural gas pricing acted as predicted for the trading week. After rallying for the week over 12%, it hit resistance at the upper band of the BB. After selling my positions at the 3730 level I took my profits and entered a short position which I had plan to exited at 3590. I did hold my shorts over the weekend,...

NrG_Trader

There has been a great deal of talks about Trump Tariffs and the effect on the NG market. While my personal belief is that Trump is following his personal dictum, which he laid out in his 1989 book "Art of the Deal". This is not a belief or endorsement for the Trumpster, just an observation through his own words and actions. The issue is China and the overall...

08:24

NrG_Trader

Models have been having a hard time with the long range physics of the global atmospheric patterns. Which is great for those of us that can see past a computer! The models began to see this last weekend, and the price gapped higher 16 cent. This weekend they confirmed once again, and we opened 10 cents higher. There has been continued support around the 20D SMA...

05:48

NrG_Trader

Showing the verification of the fundamentals with technical support. Where my thoughts are on the NG market for the rest of the week. Keep it Burning!